What is happening on the Russian logistics market today?

The logistics market is unstable at the moment. This applies to pricing, routes and methods of transportation. And the changes are often unpredictable and unrelated to objective reasons.

In this regard, the stories of large manufacturing companies, city-forming enterprises, serious taxpayers are interesting. Those who, finding themselves in an extremely difficult situation, turn to the state for help and do not receive it. They themselves are looking for ways to solve problems and ways to stay afloat in the crisis. This is a bad sign.

The key problems with transportation today are mainly related to infrastructure constraints. Increased infrastructural difficulties and lack of back-loading lead to longer delivery times. The lack of available storage space leads to an increase in the time it takes for cargo to reach the point of dispatch/arrival. And this is a direct consequence of disruptions in supply chains (due to sanctions, quarantine measures, various political obstacles). Analysts note that transportation itself accounts for only about 40% of the time, while the rest of the time is spent on cargo handling at ports, terminals, etc.

An example from recent practice. We sent containers from Moscow to Chita. And we waited 3 weeks for the shipment! This was longer than all the subsequent travel time.

Today the Eastern polygon develops actively. Roads, bridges, other logistic objects are intensively declared, designed, built... I want to say that this is a good thing, but not quite timely. It should have been started a long time ago, well in advance. And now, when there is an urgent need for these facilities, we should use them. It takes several years to build the same bridge. During this time, the situation may change repeatedly.

By the time it is launched, logistics routes will have been reorganized, and the relevance of this project will most likely no longer be so acute. The same applies to plans to build container ships. Vessels are needed right now. And now the subject of building them is being discussed. And when they are built, will they be needed in such quality and quantity? And how much will these investments pay off?

I think that in the near future we will see a trend towards cheaper logistics. The main reason is that there will not be enough cargo quantity to maintain the rates. Already now, carriers are cutting prices for a number of destinations. There are fewer cargoes, containers are in surplus, and we have to go. Therefore, if these processes are not artificially restrained (for example, by monopolistic collusion), then in general the cost of transportation will decrease. We will see.