Logistics yesterday, today, tomorrow in the context of container transportation in 2020-2023.

In order to effectively address today's challenges and adequately assess prospects and forecasts, it is important to understand and analyze past events and crises and their consequences.

Three years ago, the world faced a pandemic. Closed borders led first to higher prices and then to congestion throughout the supply chain. Shipments that had been stranded at origin points because of the pandemic first left almost simultaneously. Ports and terminals were unprepared to handle so much cargo - the “bottleneck” syndrome. The situation was exacerbated when the container ship Ever Given ran aground in the Suez Canal in March 2021 - the “bottleneck syndrome”. Then followed the January 2022 events in early 2022 in Kazakhstan, in which our country was involved. And shortly after that - the beginning of the SMO. All of these events, which occurred sequentially in a short time frame, led to major changes in supply chains: 

1. Deterioration of the quality of logistics services.

2. Increase in shipping prices. 

Everyone remembers that the prices for cargo delivery went up many times during the pandemic. Then there was a slight decrease, but the pre-pandemic level is still unattainable, as it is not profitable for monopolists. Today, in conditions of turbulence, it is impossible to make any forecasts and talk about stable trends. 

However, we are already receiving notifications from suppliers about price increases starting from December. This is the third increase for the year. Previously, the indexation was in two stages - at the beginning of the year and in the middle. I wonder what this change is related to? How many times will transportation tariffs be raised in 2024? 

3. Decrease in container turnover.  

Some owners have left the Russian market. At the same time, other operators buy containers and send them to Russia by different routes. As you know, there are more imports than exports. And it turns out that the incoming flow exceeds the outgoing flow, which leads to a surplus of containers. All owners of containers want to leave in exports, or to send containers using domestic transportation, which is not growing very intensively. But, on the other hand, there is no big decline in volumes yet either. And the decrease in rates is minimal, which means that there is no significant reduction in prices for goods and services. It turns out that the large number of empty containers and the competitive environment, which leads to lower prices for container rent, does not affect either the final cost of goods or the earnings of transportation companies. Then the question is: where does this price difference settle?